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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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